Aktsiate esmaemissioonide järgne tootlus ja neid iseloomustavad karakteristikud Balti börsil perioodil 2011–2021

Käesoleva lõputöö eesmärk oli selgitada välja aktsia esmaemissiooni järgset tootlust iseloomustavad tunnusjooned ning nende mõjusuund, et teha järeldusi tulusate investeeringute valikuks Balti börsil perioodil 2011–2021 toimunud IPO-de põhjal. Eesmärgi täitmiseks anti teoreetiline ülevaade aktsia esmaemissiooni olemusest ja järgsest tootlusest ning sellega seonduvate karakteristikute mõistmiseks ning lahtimõtestamiseks. Lisaks koostati metoodika empiirilise uuringu läbiviimiseks valitud ajavahemikul Balti börsi põhinimekirjas toimunud IPO-des, mille raames anti ülevaade Nasdaq Balti börsist ning andmete kogumise ja analüüsimise protsessidest. Lõputöö kolmandas osas kaardistati Balti börsil toimunud IPO-de järgne aastatootlus ja seda iseloomustavad tunnusjooned. Tuginedes kogutud andmetele, tehti järeldused tulusate investeeringute valikuks Balti börsil perioodil 2011–2021 toimunud IPO-de põhjal. Empiirilise uuringu objektiks valiti Balti börsi põhinimekirjas ajavahemikus 2011–2021 toimunud IPO-d. Fokuseeriti põhinimekirjale, sest tegemist on Balti börsi kõige reguleerituma turuga, mis omab vähem riske võrreldes alternatiiv turuga. Empiirilise uuringu käigus kaardistati dokumendivaatluse abil nii kvantitatiivsed kui ka kvalitatiivsed andmed kasutades emitentide IPO prospekte, majandusaata aruandeid, Nasdaq Baltic kodulehte (börsiteated ning kauplemisajalood), mille abil selgitati välja IPO-de aastatootlus ning peamised mõju avaldavad karakteristikud. Andmed analüüsiti ning seejärel visaliseeriti kasutades programmi MS Excel tabelarvutusvõimalusi, funktsioone ja graafikuid ning statistilist- ja võrdlusanalüüsi ja kvalitatiivset sisuanalüüsi. Uuritaval ajaperioodil toimus Balti börsi põhinimekirjas 9 IPO-t, millest kõige enam 2021. aastal ning Tallinna börsil. Tegevusvaldkondade lõikes tegutsesid emitendid erinevates sektorites – finants-, kinnivara- energeetika-, sadama- ja turismisektoris. Teooria ning uuringu tulemuste vahel leiti mitmeid ühiseid tunnusjooni – olemasolevate aktsiate pakkumine IPO käigus võib tuua kaasa madalama IPO järgse tootluse. Lisaks leiti tõestust, et meedial on tugev mõju IPO edukuse üle ning sellest tulenevalt võib tugev aktsiate ülemärkimine tuua kaasa parema IPO järgse tootluse. Riigitaustaga ettevõtete IPO-del on paremad IPO järgsed tootlused. Ettevõtted kaasasid avalikkuselt kapitali läbi IPO sarnastel põhjustel teooriaga (investorbaasi laiendamine, ettevõtte maine tõstmine ja tulevaste äritegevuste finantseerimine) pakkudes nii olemasolevaid kui ka uusi emiteeritavaid aktsiaid jae ning kutselistele investoritele. Kapitali kaasanud ettevõtted olid peamiselt pikaaegselt tegusenud (keskmiselt 17 aastat ning enamus vähemalt 11 aastat) ning varasemalt erakapitali tagataustaga. IPO-d peamiselt toimusid IV kvartalis ning kestsid keskmiselt 12 kalendripäeva. Keskmine aktsiate märkimishind oli 8,10 eurot, mille puhul üheksast IPO-st neli kasutas märkimishinna vahemikku. Enamus IPO-de käigus kaasati kapitali vähemalt üle 10 miljoni euro ning turule kauplema lasti keskmiselt 22% aktsiatest. Üheksast IPO-st neljal korral toimus tugev ülemärkimine (vähemalt 3,3kordne), mille tulemusel tekkis kõrge esimese kauplemispäeva tootlus. Üheksast toimunust IPO-st kolme IPO järgne tootlus langes järelturul alla märkimishinna ning kuue IPO puhul tõusis üle pakkumishinna. Parimaks IPO järgseks esimese kauplemisaasta tootluseks kujunes EGR1T 41% ja halvimaks NTU1L -21%. Empiirilise uuringu tulemuste põhjal tehti järeldused, mis annavad sisendi jaeinvestoritele tulevastes IPO-des osaledes tõhusa ja tulusa investeerimisstrateegia kujundamiseks. Uuritud IPO-de ja nende esimese kauplemisaasta tootluste põhjal tuleks tulevastel Balti börsil toimuvatel IPO-del osalemise otsuse kaalumisel arvesse võtta järgmisi omadusi või eelistusi: • aktsiatega kauplemise kohaks peaks olema Tallinna börs (keskmiselt kuni 15% kõrgem tootlus); • IPO kaudu pakutakse nii uusi kui ka olemasolevaid aktsiaid (keskmiselt kuni 16% kõrgem tootlus); • aktsiate märkimishind on kuni 10,00 eurot (keskmiselt kuni 24% kõrgem tootlus); • emitendi tegevus ajalugu on üle 10 aasta (keskmiselt kuni 6% kõrgem tootlus); • riigil on osalus ettevõttes (keskmiselt 16% kõrgem tootlus). Lõputööle järgneb uuringust kokkuvõttev artikkel, mille saadavat kasu on võimalik rakendada vähese kogemuse ja teadmistega jaeinvestoritel, luues efektiivse kaalutletud investeerimisstrateegia, mille abil teha tulevaste IPO-de osas tulusaid investeeringu valikuid Balti börsil toimunud IPO-de põhjal. Lisaks annab artikkel sisendi võimalikele uutele börsiettevõtele, kes soovivad tulevikus avalikkuselt kapitali kaasata. Olemasoleva kokkuleppe kohaselt avaldatakse uuringutulemusi kokkuvõttev artikkel Äripäeva poolt välja antavas investor Toomase ajakirjas „Investor“.

The purpose of the research was to find out the features characterizing the return of the stock after the initial public offering and its direction of influence, in order to draw conclusions for future selection of profitable investments based IPOs that took place between 2011–2021 on the Baltic Stock Exchange. To fulfil the objective, a theoretical framework of the nature of the IPO and its subsequent performance was given, as well as to understand and interpret the related characteristics. In addition, the methodology was prepared for conducting an empirical study on the IPOs that took place on the main list of the Baltic Stock Exchange during the selected period, within which an overview of the Nasdaq Baltic Stock Exchange and the processes of data collection and analysis were provided. The third part of the study mapped the annual return of investigated stocks after their initial issue on the Baltic Stock Exchange and its characteristics. Based on the collected data, conclusions were made for the future selection of profitable investments based IPOs that took place between 2011–2021 on the Baltic Stock Exchange. The object of the empirical study was IPOs that took place in the main list of the Baltic Stock Exchange between the period of 2011 to 2021. The study focused on the main list because it is the most regulated market of the Baltic Stock Exchange, which has fewer risks compared to the alternative market. In the course of the empirical study, both quantitative and qualitative data were mapped through document observation using the issuers' IPO prospectuses, financial year reports, and Nasdaq Baltic website (stock exchange announcements and trading histories), with the help of which the annual performance of IPOs and the main influencing characteristics were determined. The data was analyzed and then visualized using MS Excel spreadsheet capabilities, functions and graphs, as well as statistical and comparative analysis and qualitative content analysis. In the investigated period, 9 IPOs took place on the main list of the Baltic Stock Exchange, most of them took place in 2021 and on the Tallinn Stock Exchange. In terms of fields of activity, the issuers operated in different sectors – financial, real estate, energy, port and tourism. A several common features were found between the theory and the results of the study - offering existing shares through IPO could lead to a lower post-IPO return. In addition, evidence was found that the media has a strong influence on IPO success, and strong oversubscription of shares offered through IPO could lead to better post-IPO return. Companies with a goverment background have better post-IPO returns. Companies raised capital through IPOs for various reasons similar to the theory (expanding the investor base, enhancing the company's image and financing future business activities) by offering both existing and newly issued shares to retail and professional investors. The companies that raised capital had mainly been in business for a long time (on average 17 years and the majority at least 11 years) and previously had a private capital background. IPOs mainly took place in the IV quarter and lasted an average of 12 calendar days. The average subscription price of shares was 8.10 euros, in which case four out of nine IPOs used the subscription price range. The majority of IPOs raised at least more than 10.0 million euros and an average of 22% of the entity's shares were released for public trading on the market. Four of the nine IPOs were heavily oversubscribed (at least 3.3 times), resulting in high first-day returns. In three IPOs out of nine, the first annual return fell below the subscription price after their initial issue and in the case of six IPOs, it rose above the offer price. The best performance in the first trading year after the IPO was EGR1T with 41% and the worst was NTU1L with -21%. Conclusions were made based on the results of the empirical study, which provide input for retail investors to design an effective and profitable investment strategy when participating in future IPOs. Based on the researched IPOs and their first trading year returns the following characteristics or preferences should be considered taking in account when considering the decision to participate in future IPOs happening on the Baltic Stock Exchange: • the place of trading of shares should be the Tallinn Stock Exchange (up to 15% higher return on average); • both new and existing shares are offered through the IPO (up to 16% higher return on average); • the share subscription price is up to 10.00 euros (up to 24% higher return on average); • the activity history of the issuer is more than 20 years (up to 6% higher return on average); • a state has participation in the issuer (up to 16% higher return on average). The study will be summarized with an article about the research results, which could be applied to retail investors with little experience and knowledge, creating an effective considered investment strategy, which could help to make profitable investment choices for future IPOs based on the IPOs that took place on the Baltic Stock Exchange. In addition, the article provides input for potential new companies who are looking to raise capital from the public in the future. According to the agreement, the article will be published in the investor Toomas business magazine published by Äripäev.