Harjumaa bussiliinide piletitulu kaotus

Käesoleva lõputöö probleemiks on paberüksikpiletitulu kaotuse suuruse teadmatus. Harjumaal kehtiva piletisüsteemi kohaselt saab paberüksikpileteid osta bussijuhilt, entosad neist ei prindi piletit välja ning varastavad piletitulu. See omakorda mõjub piletimüügi statistikat ning liinide planeerimist ja dotatsiooni jagamist. Probleemi uurimiseks rakendas autor kvantitatiivset ülevaateuurimust ning lähenes probleemile kvantitatiivsete uurimismeetoditega, milleks on juhtumianalüüs ja võrdlusanalüüs. Juhtumianalüüsi käigus viidi läbi struktureerimata intervjuu Harjumaa Ühistranspordikeskuse arendusjuhiga ning uuriti HÜTK tehtud piletimüügi statistikat. Võrdlusanalüüsi käigus tuvastati 2015. ning 2016. aastate üksikpiletitulu kaotuse suurus, sarnasus ja erinevus, uurides kaotust nii bussijuhtide kui ka -liinide järgi. Sünteesist selgus, et 2016. aasta (v.a. august, oktoober, detsember) paberüksikpiletitulu kaotus on võrreldes 2015. aastaga (v.a. august, oktoober, detsember) suurenenud, vaatamata 2015. aasta lõpus bussidesse installeeritud kaameratele. Saadud tulemus on vastuolus HÜTK poolt tehtud piletitulu hinnanguga, mille kohaselt vähenes piletitulu kaotus ligikaudu kahekordselt. Nii Mediaani reegel kui ka MADe meetod näitavad piletitulu kaotuse suurenemist. MADe meetodi abil on leitud rohkem erandeid, seega ka suurem piletitulu kaotus. MADe meetodiga saadud 2016. aasta maksimaalne võimalik piletitulu kaotus kasvas 65% võrreldes sama meetodiga leitud 2015. aasta piletitulu kaotusega. Lisaks sellele kinnitab antud tulemust ka asjaolu, et tuvastatud bussijuhtide arv, kes tõenäoliselt paberüksikpiletitulu varastab, on kasvanud 44%-lt 48%-le (MADe meetod) ning 21%-lt 26%-le (Mediaani meetod). Selgus, et bussiliinid, kus on tuvastatud suurem üksikpiletitulu kaotused, on 2015. ning 2016. aastatel erinevad. Uurimuse käigus selgus, et Harjumaa Ühistranspordikeskuse poolt piletitulu kaotuse analüüsimiseks rakendatavatel meetoditel on nõrku kohti. Lõputöö tulemusena saadud piletitulu hinnanguline kaotus kolme erineva meetodiga erineb suuresti Harjumaa Ühistranspordikeskuse saadud tulemusest, mis on meetodite ülevaatamise ning muutumise põhjuseks. Õige tulukaotuse hinnang annab võimaluse nii bussijuhide kontrollimiseks kui ka õigete andmete analüüsimiseks ja järelduste tegemiseks. Usaldusväärsete andmete opereerimine on aluseks õigete otsuste tegemiseks nii transpordi planeerimisel kui ka muudatuste sisseviimisel süsteemi. Töös esitatud analüüsi tulemused ning kasutatud meetodid on kasulikud nii Harjumaa kui ka teiste maakondade bussiliikluse korraldajale. Edaspidisteks uurimissuundadeks soovitab autor analüüsida kuidas piletitulu kaotus erinevatel liinidel ja bussijuhtide piletitulu varastamine on seotud (viia läbi korrelatsioonianalüüs).

According to Harju Public Transport Centre, the loss of revenue from ticket sales formed about 500 000 euros in 2015. A year later, when video cameras were installed in the buses, losses were reported half as much. Cash pocketing by drivers is a direct cause for the loss of ticket revenue, which in turn affects statistics, planning of bus routes and determining the size of the subsidy. One of the largest expenses in the public sector is connected with public transport subsidies. Since 2006, it has risen by 75%. The problem set up for the research was lack of knowledge concerning the rate of the loss of revenue from single paper ticket sales. The thesis focuses on the analysis of revenue from single paper ticket sales on bus services. The thesis is aimed to identify the loss of ticket sales revenue, its indicative size, and possible links between the rate of the loss of ticket sales revenue, bus routes and bus drivers. The ticket revenue was detected by implementing three methods: the median value rule, the adjusted box-whiskers plot and the MADe or the median absolute deviation method. The research found answers to the following questions: • How big is the loss of revenue from ticket sales? • How can the loss of revenue from ticket sales be identified? • Are there any solutions to eliminate or reduce the loss of revenue from ticket sales? To study the problem, the author used a quantitative review study and approached the problem using quantitative research methods such as a case study and comparative analysis. The thesis consists of two chapters. The first chapter is devoted to public transport in Harju County. The author describes the organisation of public transport and the ticketing system, mentions common causes for losses of ticket revenue, and gives examples of stealing ticket revenue in different countries. An example was given how the problem is solved in London. At the end of the first chapter, the research strategy was introduced. In the second chapter, the methods for identifying the loss of revenue from ticket sales are described. The author criticises the methods used in Harju Public Transport Centre, introduces the methods selected for a data analysis, describes the data analysis carried out, and its results. The synthesis of the methods was presented, in which the results were described and grounded. In addition, conclusions and suggestions were made. During the case study, an unstructured interview was conducted with the Development Manager of Harju Public Transport Centre, and the ticket sales statistics made by the organization, was studied. The comparative analysis detected the size of the losses of revenue from single paper ticket sales, their similarities and differences in 2015 and 2016, while the losses were examined regarding bus drivers and bus routes. The synthesis revealed that the loss of revenue in 2016 (except for August, October, December), as compared to 2015 (except for August, October, December), increased, despite the fact that cameras were installed in buses at the end of 2015. This result contradicted the assessment of revenue, made by Harju Public Transport Centre, according to which the loss of ticket sales revenue decreased approximately two times. Both the median value rule and the MADe method showed an increase in ticket revenue loss instead. When using the MADe method, more differences were detected, this means greater loss of ticket sales revenue. The possible maximum loss of revenue in 2016, found when using the MADe method, increased by 65% as compared to the loss in 2015, found by the same method. Moreover, this result was confirmed by the fact that the number of drivers who possibly steal revenue from selling single paper tickets, has grown from 44% to 48% (MADe method), and from 21% to 26% (median value method). It turned out that bus routes, on which the biggest loss of revenue from single ticket sales was found, were different in 2015 and 2016. The research revealed that methods used by Harju Public Transport Centre to analyse the loss of revenue from ticket sales, have faults. The estimated loss of ticket revenue found as a research result, using the three different methods, differs greatly from the results of Harju Public Transport Centre, which is a good reason to review and change their methods. A proper assessment of losses of revenue gives an opportunity to check bus drivers as well as conduct a correct data analysis and make conclusions. Operating with reliable data is the basis for making right decisions both in planning transport and making changes in the systems. The results of the research analysis and the methods used are beneficial for bus service operators in Harjumaa and other counties. The author suggests that future research should analyse how the loss of revenue from selling tickets on different routes, and stealing ticket revenue by bus drivers are connected (a correlation analysis).